河南"21·7"特大暴雨常规与扰动天气形势分析
Anomaly-based versus full-field-based weather analysis on the extraordinary storm in Henan province in July 2021
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摘要:
2021年7月19—21日, 河南省中北部的特大暴雨造成了内涝和重大的生命财产损失, 其中以省会郑州市的灾害最为严重.极值日雨量分布从西南的鲁山400.6 mm到郑州659.7 mm和东北部的鹤壁777.5 mm, 跨度约为300 km, 其中20日16—17时的郑州最大小时降水量达到201.9 mm.科学认识和提前预报产生特大暴雨的天气系统是减少生命财产损失的前提.本文利用我国气象业务平台上的大气观测实况和数值模式产品做常规与扰动天气形势分析, 结果发现: (1)与强降水对应的稳定云团属于西北太平洋副高异常偏北与内陆高压连通后形成在南侧的对流层中下部东风波中尺度扰动低压系统; (2)最强降水的20日, 华南沿海台风"查帕卡"、西北太平洋台风"烟花"与郑州附近强上升气流的扰动中低压构成了相互牵制的3个强降水系统; (3)扰动分析比常规天气图上的风和比湿形势更能有效地确定极端降水的位置, 欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)模式产品中的风扰动、比湿扰动和湿涡度扰动对极端降水预报有明确的指示意义, 认识模式产品的准确性和稳定性是未来提高特大暴雨预报技巧的基础.
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关键词:
- 扰动天气分析 /
- 常规天气分析 /
- 复盘分析 /
- 特大暴雨 /
- 河南中北部
Abstract:From 19 to 21 July 2021, the central northern Henan province had experienced life and property losses caused by locally record-breaking extraordinary rainfall and waterlogging, with the severest disaster in Zhengzhou, the capital city of Henan province. The precipitation in the three days extended nearly 300 km in length from the first day 400.6 mm in Lushan to the second day 659.7 mm in Zhengzhou, and the last day 777.5 mm in Hebi. The hourly precipitation in a Zhengzhou station reached 201.9 mm from 16∶00 to 17∶00 BJT on 20 July. Identifying and forecasting the system that generates extreme rainfall is a prerequisite to reducing the loss of life and property. This paper did anomaly-based versus full-field-based weather analysis based on the daily atmospheric observations and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) fine-grid model products on operational meteorological platforms. The results show that 1) the stable cloud cluster corresponding to the heavy rainfall in Henan is an easterly wave system formed on the south side when the northwest Pacific subtropical high is abnormally north in location and connected with a China mainland high; 2) On 20 July, Typhoon Chapaka near the coast of South China, Typhoon In-fa in the northwest Pacific, and the anomalous mesoscale low of strong ascending flow near Zhengzhou constituted three heavy precipitation systems that tied up nearby; 3) anomaly-based synoptic analysis was more effective in determining the location of extreme rainfall than full-field-based synoptic analysis of wind and specific humidity. The wind and specific humidity anomalies, and the moist vorticity anomalies (MVA) in the short-term forecast products of the ECMWF, have better guidance for operational extreme rainfall forecasts. Identifying the accuracy and stability of model products is essential to improve the skill of rainfall forecasting.
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Key words:
- Anomaly-based synoptic analysis /
- Full-field-based weather analysis /
- After-action review /
- Extraordinary storm /
- Central-northern Henan province
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图 1
2021年7月17日08时至22日20时河南省中北部7个大降水站逐小时降水量(mm)序列
Figure 1.
Hourly precipitation (mm) series of seven large precipitation stations in central northern Henan Province from 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 17 July to 20:00 BJT on 22 July 2021.
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图 2
(a) 2021年7月17日08时至7月23日08时144 h(6天)累计降水量(mm)和(b) 2021年7月20日08时至7月21日08时24h累计降水量(mm)
Figure 2.
(a) Cumulative precipitation (mm) for 144h (6 days) from 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 17 July to 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 23 July 2021, and (b) Cumulative precipitation (mm) for 24 hours from 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 20 July to 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 21 July 2021
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图 3
2021年7月4天每个24小时时段的累计降水量(mm)分布
Figure 3.
Distribution of accumulated precipitation (mm) for each 24-hour for the four days of July 2021
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图 4
2021年7月(a) 18日14时，(b) 19日14时，(c) 20日14时和(d)21日14时，日本葵花卫星真彩色云图.
Figure 4.
True color cloud maps of the Japanese Himawari-8 at 14 ∶ 00 BJT on (a) 18, (b) 19, (c) 20, and (d) 21 July 2021.
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图 5
2021年7月20日(a)13时30分，(b)15时00分，(c)15时30分，(d)16时36分，(e)17时00分，(f)18时00分雷达回波组合反射率(阴影，5dBZ间隔)
Figure 5.
Combined radar echo reflectance (shaded, 5dBZ interval) at (a) 13 ∶ 30, (b) 15 ∶ 00, (c) 15 ∶ 30, (d) 16 ∶ 36, (e) 17 ∶ 00, and (f) 18 ∶ 00 BJT on 20 July, 2021
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图 6
2021年7月20日(a)08时和(b)20时700 hPa高度、风和比湿(阴影，%)分析, 以及欧洲模式(c)提前24 h和(d)提前48 h对20日20时700 hPa高度、风和比湿的预报(来自江苏一体化平台).
Figure 6.
Analysis of 700 hPa geopotential height, wind and specific humidity (shading, %) at (a) 08:00 BJT, and (b) 20 ∶ 00 BJT on 20 July 2021 (from the Integration Platform of Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Observation). (c) and (d) are same as in (b) but the ECMWF model prediction with lead times of 24 and 48 hours.
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图 7
2021年7月20日(a)08时和(b)20时700 hPa风扰动和比湿扰动(阴影，0.6×10-3 kg·kg-1间隔), 以及欧洲模式(c)提前24h和(d)提前48 h对20日20时700 hPa风扰动和比湿扰动的预报.
Figure 7.
700 hPa wind anomaly and specific humidity anomaly (shaded, 0.6×10-3kg·kg-1 interval) at (a) 08 ∶ 00 BJT and (b) 20 ∶ 00 BJT on 20 July 2021. (c) and (d) are same as in (b) but the ECMWF model prediction with lead times of 24 and 48 hours.
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图 8
2021年7月20日(a)08时和(b)20时700 hPa风扰动和湿涡度扰动(阴影，MVA，0.1×10-6s-1间隔), 以及欧洲模式(c)提前24 h和(d)提前48 h对20日08时700 hPa MVA和风扰动的预报.
Figure 8.
00 hPa MVA (shaded, 0.1×10-6s-1 interval) and wind anomalies (a) 08 ∶ 00 BJT and (b) 20 ∶ 00 BJT on 20 July 2021. (c) and (d) are same as in (b) but the ECMWF model prediction with lead times of 24 and 48 hours.
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图 9
2021年7月20日08时(a)沿34.5°N从105°E—125°E和(b)沿113°E从15°N—45°N随气压(hPa)变化的高度扰动(等值线，1×10 gPm)和温度扰动(阴影，1 ℃间隔)垂直剖面.
Figure 9.
Vertical profiles of geopotential anomalies (contours, 1×10 gpm) and temperature anomalies (shading, 1 ℃ interval) along 34.5°N from 105°E—125°E and (b) along 113.4°E from 15°N—45°N with pressure (hPa) at 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 20 July 2021.
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图 10
欧洲模式分别从2021年7月(a)15日08时和(b)17日20时起报郑州未来10天的湿度扰动(阴影，0.6×10-3 kg·kg-1间隔)和南风扰动(等值线，4 m·s-1间隔)随气压(1000~100 hPa)和时间(每天4个时次)的变化.
Figure 10.
The profiles of specific humidity anomalies (shading, 0.6×10-3 kg·kg-1 interval) and the southerly wind anomalies (contours, 4 m·s-1 interval) with vertical pressures (1000~100 hPa) and times (4 times per day) based on the ECMWF model prediction started from (a) 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 15 July 2021 and (b) 20 ∶ 00 BJT on 17 July 2021, respectively.
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图 11
同 图 8，但为欧洲模式14日08时(a)提前96h预报18日08时和(b)提前108 h预报18日20时700 hPa风扰动和湿涡度扰动.
Figure 11.
Same as Fig. 10, but for the ECMWF model predictions of 700 hPa MVA and wind anomalies started from 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 14 July with lead times of (a) 96 and (b) 108 hours for the forecasts at 08 ∶ 00 BIT on 18 July and 20 ∶ 00 BJT on 18 July.
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图 12
欧洲模式(a)16日20时提前48h预报18日20时，(b) 17日08时提前54 h预报19日14时，(c) 17日20时提前66 h预报20日14时，和(d)18日20时提前42 h预报20日14时沿经度113.63°E剖面上的南风扰动(实线和虚线，4 m·s-1间隔)和MVA(阴影，0.1×10-6s-1)垂直分布.
Figure 12.
The ECMWF model predictions of southerly wind anomalies (solid line and dashed line, 4 m·s-1 interval) and MVA (shaded, 0.1×10-6s-1) at the vertical-longitude section along 113.63°E with lead times of (a) 48 hours started from 20 ∶ 00 BJT on 16 July for the forecasts at 20:00 BJT on 18 July 2021, (b) 54 hours started from 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 17 July for the forecasts at 14 ∶ 00 BJT on 19 July 2021, (c) 66 hours started from 20 ∶ 00 BJT on 17 July for the forecasts at 14 ∶ 00 BJT on 20 July 2021, and (d) 42 hours started from 20 ∶ 00 BJT on 18 July for the forecasts at 14 ∶ 00 BJT on 20 July 2021.
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表 1
2021年7月17日08时—2021年7月22日20时河南省小时雨强排序
Table 1.
Hourly precipitation intensity rankings in Henan Province from 08 ∶ 00 BJT on 17 July 2021 to 20 ∶ 00 BJT on 22 July 2021
排名 站名 经度 纬度 海拔高度(m) 小时雨强(mm) 出现时段 1 郑州国家站 113°39′46″ 34°42′23″ 110.4 201.9 20日16—17时 2 郑州尖岗 113°34′11″ 34°41′39″ 158 158.0 20日15—16时 3 新乡牧野乡 113°53′56″ 35°19′19″ 78 149.9 21日20—21时 4 郑州中原区 113°35′46″ 34°44′37″ 156 144.4 20日15—16时 5 安阳北关六十五中 114°22′40″ 36°07′01″ 76 138.0 21日04—05时 6 郑州外国语 113°33′16″ 34°49′07″ 103 137.9 20日15—16时 7 郑州气象局 113°41′55″ 34°42′14″ 105 135.7 20日16—17时 8 新乡牧野 113°55′33″ 35°21′22″ 64 131.1 21日20—21时 9 淇县北阳 114°09′50″ 35°33′22″ 72 130.1 21日18—19时 10 郑州侯寨 113°34′52″ 34°40′10″ 190 129.1 20日15—16时
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